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Dow Bounces Back Because July Rate Cut Odds Ballooned to 89%

jerome powell, federal reserve rate cut, dow jones

The Dow bounced back on Thursday, as the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in July ballooned to 89%. | Source: Joshua Roberts / Getty Images / AFP

By CCN Markets: The Dow and broader U.S. stock market advanced on Thursday, as investors found a silver lining in the recent string of downbeat data releases. By this time next week, markets will have a clearer picture of whether the Federal Reserve will indeed lower interest rates at its end-of-July policy meeting.

Dow Rises; S&P 500, Nasdaq Follow

All of Wall Street’s major indexes reported gains on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by as much as 142 points before backtracking later. It settled up 101.94 points, or 0.4%, at 26,106.77.

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average claws back above 26,000 on Thursday. | Source: Yahoo Finance.

The broad S&P 500 Index of large-cap stocks climbed 0.4% to 2,891.64. Seven of 11 primary sectors reported gains, led by energy. Oil stocks rose more than 1% as crude prices staged a major relief rally on Thursday. Shares of communication services and discretionary companies also advanced sharply.

Meanwhile, the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.6% to 7,837.13.

Investors Lick Their Chops as Rate-Cut Bets Grow


Chances are high that the Federal Reserve will resort to rate cuts following its July FOMC meeting. | Source: Shutterstock.

The likelihood that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting has grown to 88.7%, according to CME Group‘s Fed Fund futures prices. The odds could rise substantially or decline after next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where policymakers could drop some important clues about the direction of interest rates.

Wharton professor of finance Jeremy Siegel recently told CNBC that the Fed should cut interest rates next week. While this is unlikely to happen, officials will probably “put out a directive” that lays the groundwork for a July rate cut.

Siegel believes “the market will be satisfied” with a 25 basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate.

The U.S. central bank will likely resort to slashing interest rates to blunt a growing tide of macro risks ranging from global trade tensions to weak inflation. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor said consumer prices rose just 1.8% in the 12 months through May, down from 2% the month before. The data set followed a similarly downbeat report on producer prices, which also rose 1.8% year-over-year.

Click here for a real-time Dow Jones Industrial Average price chart.

About The Author

Sam Bourgi

Chief Editor to and Contributor to, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world’s leading newscasts, including Barron’s, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi. Contact: [email protected]

This article was edited by Josiah Wilmoth.

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